However, given the complexity and urgency of the issue, it was upgraded to a full-time National Population Secretariat (NPS) 3 in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) in June 2006. It was housed in MCYS because the focus then was on marriage and parenthood. The NPC was initially supported by a part-time secretariat based in the Ministry of Community Development, Youth and Sports (MCYS). The NPC has adopted a holistic approach, focusing its efforts in the three key strategies on promoting marriage and parenthood, engaging Overseas Singaporeans and encouraging immigration of suitable foreigners. The NPC steers and guides the development of strategic policies in confronting the population challenge. To do this, the Government has formed a ministerial-level committee, the National Population Committee (NPC) 2, which I chair. There is a need for planning and coordination at the highest level. It is also a complex and multi-faceted challenge.
Among others, a key factor behind the high TFR in the US is the high inflow of new immigrants.Ĭlearly, the population challenge is a serious one for many countries, including Singapore. The main and outstanding exception among developed countries is the United States, where TFR is holding steady at the replacement level of 2.1. To complement its fertility efforts, Australia has tried to reach out to its overseas diaspora and at the same time attract immigrants. While it has managed to reverse the downtrend to increase its TFR from 1.73 in 2001 to 1.77 in 2004, it is still below replacement rate. In 2004, the Australian government urged families to have “one (baby) for mum, one for dad and one for the country”, and more recently, to “procreate and cherish”. Almost all developed countries face the twin problems of a declining TFR and an ageing population. I had earlier touched on Japan’s acute situation of deaths outstripping new births. We are not alone in grappling with population issues. Is Singapore unique in facing its population challenge? How does the Government intend to deal with the problem of a shrinking population? Whether Singapore can continue to grow and prosper depends on how we tackle the population challenge. A declining population will diminish our economic prospects and vitality, compromise our defence capabilities and increase the socio-economic burden for all Singaporeans. Without more new births, our population will shrink. Our own population is ageing – current projections show that one-in-five Singaporeans will be over the age of 65 by 2030. This is not an optimistic picture, and has begun to happen in Japan, which has recorded its very first instance of resident deaths outstripping resident births1. When coupled with more emigrants leaving the country, the rate of shrinkage will accelerate dramatically. At a time when we are not replacing ourselves through new births, we can ill afford to lose our able sons and daughters.Īny population will shrink if the number of deaths gradually outstrips new births – this is symptomatic of an ageing society. If the result is truly representative of the aspirations of the young, then Singapore would have a problem. However, the Straits Times survey also revealed that 53 per cent of Singaporean teens would consider emigration. We also hope that they will eventually come back, and play their rightful role in contributing to our economy, and serving our people. We hope that when they go overseas to study or work, they remain connected to Singapore, rdemain Singaporeans in heart and mind. There is nothing wrong with that in fact, we have been encouraging Singaporeans to venture abroad to study and work where possible so that they can learn new things and seek out new opportunities. A Straits Times article reported last month that two-thirds of Singaporean teens would like to work abroad. Today, we count more than 140,000 of them already. That means we have had 30 years of under-replacement.Īt the same time, with globalisation, more Singaporeans will venture abroad. To replace ourselves, we would need a TFR of 2.1, or at least two per woman, and we have not seen that figure in Singapore since 1976. Singapore’s total fertility rate (TFR), which measures the number of babies born per woman, fell to a historic low of 1.24 in 2004. What is Singapore’s population challenge?
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